Finnish electricity market · Full year analysis
Production-weighted spot market analysis revealing the true revenue gap between baseload prices and what Finnish wind producers actually received — and why flexible energy systems close that gap.
Wind Capture Price
€22.4
per MWh · production-weighted
Baseload Avg Price
€40.5
per MWh · simple hourly average
Capture Ratio
55.3%
of baseload value realised
Wind/Price Correlation
−0.490
Pearson r · annual · p < 0.001
Negative Price Hours
465 h
5.3% of all 8,760 hours
Price bucket breakdown by hours, share of year, and average price within each band. n = 8,760 hours.
| Band | Hours | % of year | Avg €/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 465 | 5.3% | -1.25 |
| < €5 | 2,422 | 27.7% | 2.41 |
| €5–€10 | 861 | 9.8% | 6.92 |
| €10–€20 | 854 | 9.8% | 14.39 |
| €20–€30 | 609 | 7.0% | 24.65 |
| > €30 | 3,547 | 40.5% | 89.11 |
Pearson r = −0.490, Spearman r = −0.578. Both statistically significant at p < 0.001 across 8,758 hourly observations.
The annual Pearson r of −0.490 means wind is the single strongest predictor of hourly spot price in the Finnish market — stronger than demand, hydro, or temperature.
Rolling correlation reaches −0.95+ on individual days. On the strongest cannibalisation days, wind alone explains virtually all price variation.
The €18.08/MWh gap between capture and baseload represents €18.08 × annual GWh of systematic underperformance vs a passive baseload position.
Hourly wind production vs spot price on the days where the inverse relationship was strongest. Select a date to explore.
Select date range · Resolution auto-scales: weekly → daily → hourly → 15-min. Use presets or pick custom dates.
465 hours (5.3%) carried negative day-ahead prices in 2025. Spring and summer dominate due to high wind and low demand.
Production-weighted capture price vs simple baseload average. The gap widens in high-wind months — the cannibalisation signature.
Total GWh per month vs load factor (actual ÷ P99.5 practical max 6,451 MW).
Fingrid 15-min and day-ahead daily forecasts vs actual measured output. Full year 2025. Lower MAE = better.
15-min MAE
246 MW
Daily MAE
441 MW
15-min Corr.
0.9855
Daily Corr.
0.9512
Daily Bias
+231 MW
Hours Overfc.
67.5%
15 MW flexible compute co-located. VESS pays €90/MWh. Draws wind first, grid if spot < €90. All wind sold to grid when spot > €90.
VESS Utilisation
83.9%
VESS from Wind
75.6 GWh
VESS from Grid
34.6 GWh
Farm Wind Output
100.1 GWh
Hours Spot > €90
1,413 h
Negative Price Hrs
465 h
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